Presidential-Race.net

A Presidential-race.net EXCLUSIVE and WEEKLY SERIES sections posted on MONDAYS have concluded and are available for your review and comments.  You can either scroll down or chose the links to jump to and back between sections as it interests you.  Compare how the piece of the puzzle fits to your candidate’s strengths, weaknesses, knowledge, and strategies to make the best selection for President.

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In 2007-2008, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Network identified trends, issues of concern and risks the future holds for the world. Definitions to be aware of:

• Trends are defined as observable facts in the contemporary world.
• Issues of concern is defined as potential challenges which arise from those trends.
• Risks are specific realizations of those challenges in a format which is sufficiently specific to be open to a level of assessment in terms of relative severity and likelihood, without being too specific that it would preclude them as a basis for decision-making.

In total, this forum identified trends/issues/risks in the areas of Economic, Environment, Geopolitical, Society and Technology.

Why is Presidential-race.net taking the time to post a summary of the findings of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Network? There are two reasons:

1. This is not something mainstream news will present to their viewers/readers, as it does not typically capture audience numbers.
2. Simply because these are the items your presidential candidate (if elected) will face during his or her term in office; they will need to be prepared to manage these items in the global setting with other nations.

Therefore, you will need to ask yourself the following question while reading the summaries: “Does my candidate possess the experience, knowledge, and skills to navigate the ever-changing settings of mankind and it’s politics to save this world we call Earth?” Keep in mind, Presidential-race.net does not tell you how to pick a candidate, merely provide you with the knowledge you must consider to select the best person possible (irrespective of political party) to lead this country through the challenges this world will be forced to face as one.

As the topics are detailed, they will be reviewed in separate sections, each identified with likelihood and severity of the resulting risks, followed by an assessment of the risk.

All charts will use the following risk assessment key. You can jump to sections here: Economics, Environment, Geopolitical, Society and Technology.

Each matrix will show the 2007 and 2008 assessments, which are broadly but not directly comparable.

Check back every Monday for new and successive updates in the series for you to review and consider in your election choices.

ECONOMICS – 6 trends, 6 issues, 6 risks

1. Trend: Growing imbalances in food/agricultural production and use, driven in part by bio-fuel production and a shift to water-intensive crops.

   1. a. Issue: Rapidly rising and increasingly volatile food prices.

      1. Risk: Rising and volatile prices create significant shortages for poor consumers globally.

2. Trend: Tightening energy markets.

   1. Issue: Vulnerability to supply-side disruption

      1. Risk: Oil or gas prices rise steeply due to a major supply disruption (decreased global supply by 10% for several months).

3. Trend: Macroeconomic Imbalances.

   1. Issue: Unsustainability of US current account deficit

      1. Risk: An abrupt major fall in the value of the US dollar with impacts throughout the financial system.

4. Trend: Rise of Chinese Economic Power.

   1. Issues: Sustainability of Chinese economic growth

      1. Risk: Domestic social/political issues combine to reduce Chinese growth to 6% or less (sustained slower growth).

5. Trend: Aging populations in developed economies.

   1. Issue: Potential for fiscal crises

      1. Risk: Declining fiscal positions force multiple governments of wealthy countries to raise taxes, leading to economic stagnation.

6. Trend: High and increasing asset prices fuelled by unprecedented liquidity.

   1. Issue: Asset “bubble” and credit crunch.

      1. Risk: House and other asset prices collapse in the US, United Kingdom and Europe, significantly reducing consumer spending and creating a recession.

Risk Assessment Key

Summary: Dollar collapse, asset-values fall, shortages of food, oil and housing, volatile prices, social/political crisis; all these elements (separately or combined) could cause societal collapse and/or lead to border skirmishes if not all-out war between one or more factions. Can your political candidate choice for Chief Executive Officer handle these scenarios and provide solutions?

ENVIRONMENT – 3 trends, 6 issues, 7 risks

1. Trend – Climate Change/Global Warming

   1. Issue: Increase in extreme weather events

      1. Risk: Extreme weather events linked to climate change will impact businesses and society at large (e.g., multiple tropical cyclones make landfall along the Gulf Coast, India, Bangladesh or China over a 10-year period).

   2. Issue: Changing rainfall patterns.

      1. Risk: More frequent and severe heat-waves and droughts have harsh impacts on agricultural yields around the world.

2. Trend – Ecosystem degradation

   1. Issue: Loss of freshwater services

      1. Risk: Declining quality and quantity of water in several major watersheds leads to water shortages and increased prevalence of water-borne disease.

3. Trend: Increasing human exposure to natural catastrophes

   1. Issue: Earthquakes

      1. Risk: Natural catastrophe: A strong earthquake hits an economic center such as Tokyo, Los Angeles, or San Francisco.

      2. Risk: Natural catastrophe: A strong earthquake or seaquake (followed by a strong tsunami) hits a developing country such as China, India or Indonesia.

   2. Issue: Inland flooding

      1. Risk: Natural catastrophe: Extreme inland flooding of the Mississippi, Yangtze, Thames or Rhine rivers causes direct economic and human losses and serious disruption downstream.

   3. Issue: Tropical hurricanes

      1. Risk: Natural catastrophe: Category 5 tropical hurricane hits an economic center such as Tokyo or southern Florida.

Risk Assessment Key

Summary: Global warming requires a President that will have a staff develop the guidelines for the industries to follow with reduction goals and penalties to be paid if not reached (financial and market implications). The time is for concrete technological solutions coupled with discipline unwavering to the special interest groups. Will your political candidate choice for Chief Executive Officer possess the will to handle the push-back from industries and provide a healthy solutions for future generations?

GEOPOLITICS – 7 trends, 9 issues, 12 risks

1. Trend – Rise of non-traditional, asymmetric warfare

   1. Issue: International terrorism

      1. Risk: International terrorists mount multiple attacks with conventional and chemical (but not nuclear) weapons, causing significant economic and human losses and exacerbating the retrenchment from globalization.

2. Trend – Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction

   1. Issue: Potential spread of nuclear capabilities

      1. Risk: Collapse of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) leads to multiple states simultaneously pursuing nuclear technologies and weaponry, with associated increase in geopolitical tensions dragging on the global economy.

3. Trend – Reconfiguration of global power

   1. Issue: War

      1. Risk: US/Iran conflict

      2. Risk: US/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea conflict

4. Trend – Widening gap between “geographies of order and disorder”

   1. Issue: Failed and failing states

      1. Risk: US/Iran conflict Nation building in Afghanistan fails, providing haven for international terrorist groups, and triggering the decline of the Pakistani state.

      2. Risk: Disorder in the Horn of Africa worsens as multiple states descend into conflict and offer haven for terrorist groups.

      3. Risk: A fragile Latin American regime collapses suddenly, spreading political and economic uncertainty throughout the region.

5. Trend – Global integration outpacing international policing capabilities.

   1. Issue: Transnational crime.

      1. Risk: Penetration of organized crime in the global economy increases significantly over a 10-year period, weakening state authority, worsening the investment climate and slowing growth.

6. Trend – Retrenchment from globalization

   1. Issue: Rising protectionism in developed economies

      1. Risk: Multiple developed economies adopt policies (tariffs, WTO disputes) which retard existing trade and further undermine talks on increased global integration.

   2. Issue: Rising economic nationalism in developing economies

      1. Risk: Multiple significant emerging economies advance policies that harm foreign direct investment and slow the engine or global growth.

7. Trend – Intractability of Middle East Conflict

   1. Issue: Israeli/Palestinian conflict

      1. Risk: Worsening conflict in the Occupied Territories claims thousands of lives over a 10-year period, and exacerbates geopolitical tensions and economic decline throughout the region.

   2. Issue: War in Iraq

      1. Risk: All forms of violence in Iraq – sectarian, insurgent, terrorist – worsen and claim thousands of lives. Failure to achieve peace destabilizes the region on an ongoing basis.

Risk Assessment Key

SOCIETY – 4 trends, 4 issues, 4 risks

1. Trend: Greater interconnectedness of social systems

   1. Issue: Potential for fast-traveling pathogens

      1. Risk: A pandemic disease jumps from the animal population to humans, with high mortality and transmission rates following.

2. Trend: Increasing prevalence of infectious disease in the developing world

   1. Issue: Potential for worsening of global AIDS/TB/malaria epidemics

      1. Risk: Incidence of infectious disease continues to rise in Africa and rises dramatically in Russia and South-East Asia (TB and HIV/AIDS)

3. Trend: Increasing burden of chronic disease in the developed world

   1. Issue: Conflation of obesity/diabetes/Cardiovascular disease

      1. Chronic diseases are widespread in the developed world.

4. Trend: Spread of liability regimes

   1. Issue: Potential spread of US-style liability regimes domestically and internationally

      1. Risk: US liability costs increase at four times the rate of GDP growth, and spread rapidly to Europe and Asia. Capacity for global insurance is reduced, undermining investment and growth.

Risk Assessment Key

TECHNOLOGY – 2 trends, 2 issues, 2 risks

1. Trend: Increasingly interdependent critical information infrastructure (CII)

   1. Issue: Vulnerability of CII to attack or system failure

      1. Risk: Attack or system failure in CII creates a domino effect, shutting down IT-dependent applications in power, water, transport, banking and finance, and emergency management.

2. Trend: Development of Technology on the nanoscale

   1. Issue: Potential toxicity of nanoparticles

      1. Risk: Studies reveal health impairment due to exposure to widely used nanoparticles (paint, cosmetics, healthcare). Primary impacts on public health and secondary impacts on investment in a range of nanotechnologies.

Risk Assessment Key

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